Development and evaluation of an operational SDS forecasting system for East Asia: CUACE/Dust
نویسندگان
چکیده
CUACE/Dust, an operational mesoscale sand and dust storm (SDS) forecasting system for East Asia, has been developed by online coupling a dust aerosol emission scheme and dust aerosol microphysics onto a regional meteorological model with improved advection and diffusion schemes and a detailed Northeast Asia soil erosion database. With improved initial dust aerosol conditions through a 3-DVar data assimilation system, CUACE/Dust successfully forecasted most of the 31 SDS processes in East Asia. A detailed comparison of the model predictions for the 8–12 March SDS process with surface network observations and lidar measurements revealed a robust forecasting ability of the system. The time series of the operationally forecasted dust concentrations for a number of representative stations for the whole spring 2006 (1 March–31 May) were evaluated against surface PM10 monitoring data, showing a good agreement in terms of the SDS timing and magnitudes at and near the source regions where dust aerosols dominate. For the operational forecasts of spring 2006 in East Asia, a TS (threat score) system evaluated the performance of CUACE/Dust against all available observations and rendered a spring averaged TS value of 0.31 for FT1 (24 h forecasts), 0.23 for FT2 (48 h forecasts) and 0.21 for FT3 (72 h forecasts).
منابع مشابه
CUACE/Dust – an integrated system of observation and modeling systems for operational dust forecasting in Asia
Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures ◭ ◮ ◭ ◮ Back Close Full Screen / Esc Printer-friendly Version Interactive Discussion EGU Abstract An integrated sand and dust storm (SDS) forecasting system – CUACE/Dust (the Chi-nese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment for Dust) has been deve...
متن کاملSDS numerical forecast system in Asia and its performance
Development and evaluation of an operational SDS forecasting system for East Asia: CUACE/DUST C. H. Zhou, S. L. Gong, X. Y. Zhang, Y. Q. Wang, T. Niu, H. L. Liu, T. L. Zhao, Y. Q. Yang, and Q. Hou Centre for Atmosphere Watch & Services (CAWAS), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing 100081, China Air Quality Research Division, Science & Te...
متن کاملData assimilation of dust aerosol observations for CUACE/Dust forecasting system
A data assimilation system (DAS) was developed for the Chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment – Dust (CUACE/Dust) forecast system and applied in the operational forecasts of sand and dust storm (SDS) in spring 2006. The system is based on a three dimensional variational method (3D-Var) and uses extensively the mea5 surements of surface visibility and dust loading retrieval from the C...
متن کاملAn operational Asian dust forecasting system
CUACE/Dust – an integrated system of observation and modeling systems for operational dust forecasting in Asia S. L. Gong and X. Y. Zhang Centre for Atmosphere Watch and Services of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China Air Quality Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, Ontario, M3H 5T4 Canada Receive...
متن کامل